The Future of Chiang Mai

Last edited: October 28, 2017 at 06:27:23

The future of Chiang Mai: promising or problematic?

Well into the Western New Year 2017, but still a few weeks before Chinese New Year (the Year of the Rooster) and a few months before Thai New Year (2560), it’s a good time to pause and reflect on where Chiang Mai is heading to in the near future.

After an article published a few years ago on this website correctly predicted most major developments that happened in Chiang Mai in the past few years, we ask: what’s next?

We asked a few experts and summarized Chiang Mai’s possible future in the next 5, perhaps 10 years.

1. Chiang Mai is becoming more like Bangkok

Like it or not, but Chiang Mai is heading in the direction of becoming a crowded, congested city much like Bangkok. Actually ... worse than Bangkok, because at least Bangkok has public transport.

The construction boom of houses, shopping malls and condominiums of the past few years has attracted more residents in town, but the lack of urban planning and investment in the infrastructure of roads in and around the city has led to more and more traffic jams, that will only get worse in the coming years.
Major intersections and major roads inside the city but also on the Superhighway have become more congested during most of the day, and this will only get worse. There will hardly be times that you can drive in the city without a jam.

The situation will become worse than in Bangkok, because Bangkok was able to redesign it’s road system and widen it at some places, and it has some proper public transport.
For Chiang Mai to widen up its inner roads it’s simply too late, because the government lacks the money to buy everyone out along important inner city roads. It's hardly imaginable the government can buy up all the stores and townhouses along Nimmanhaemin, Suthep road and Huaykaew road and widen the roads at this late stage.

2. Chiang Mai to become 'Accident Capital City' of Thailand

Already, the accident rate in Chiang Mai is one of the highest in Thailand. According to the latest government monitoring action during the so-called "7 Dangerous Days" around New Year, the number of accidents in Chiang Mai is highest within Thailand.
Chiang Mai will continue to ‘excel’ in this regard with an excessive accident rate and death toll. The reason for this is that the city was simply not designed for this amount of traffic.

Chiang Mai is becoming a patient with high blood pressure with all it’s major roads congested during daytime hours, a patient in serious risk of having a cardiac arrrest. With much more traffic, but the same roads, more and more accidents are bound to happen.

CHIANG MAI RESIDENTS ARE NOW PAYING THE PRICE
IN LOSS OF TRAVEL TIME AND ACCIDENTS AND LOSS OF LIVES
DUE TO LACK OF GOVERNMENT PLANNING AND ACTION

So far, you can witness accidents scenes on the road that just happened nearly every week, with the ambulance just arriving or just leaving. In the near future, traffic accidents will become so common that you will be able to witness them happening with your own eyes in front of you.

Sadly, traffic accidents in Chiang Mai will become so common that you can witness them live

As a foreigner driving in town your risk of having a traffic accident is very real and the joy of driving somewhere will lessen more and more. In order to stay safe, read our guidelines to understand how Thai traffic really works.

3. Real public transport in Chiang Mai won’t be coming soon

Considering it’s size, Chiang Mai should have a decent system of public transport but it doesn't. There are only a few bus services to outward places like Lamphun and Lampang and a lame system of songtaews that present themselves as a public transport option. Most of the need there is for public transport is catered for by songtaews in different colours, but it's insufficient.

Despite the needs for it, we do not expect local government to be able to step over vested interests to create a real public transport system within the next 5-10 years.

Private initiatives, such as Grab Taxi and Uber will make more of a difference than any government programs, but that's not public transport.

4. Major infrastructural projects will only be realized on the very long run

Despite announcing it’s plans to make a high-speed rail line connecting Chiang Mai to Bangkok, to build a new airport and to build a highway to Chiang Rai, such major projects won’t be carried out within the next ten years or so simply because the government doesn’t have the money and commitment to carry them out.
A high-speed train system will make some difference to Chiang Mai but frankly the airline tickets are so cheap that its effect will be limited. Chiang Mai is in great need of a new airport though, and delaying that decision won’t be benificial for the city.

5. Local economy will remains poor

While the current government does have some benefit for Thailand in the sense that it is cleaning up the system on the long term, it doesn’t have much feeling for business and it didn’t generate prosperity for Thailand on the short term.
Even if eventually a new elected government comes to power in Thailand within a few years, it will be bound by control measures installed in the system now and Thailand may not have the same laissez-fair economy as it used to have in the past.
There is tremendous potential in the Thai economy but with self-interests, corruption and inefficient business practises handicapping the system, it’s not likely to grow vey fast within the next 5 years.

Figures suggesting significant growth of the Thai economy and a booming tourism sector are highly suspect.
https://www.adb.org/countries/thailand/economy

Factories and small businesses have been suffering during the past few years. A local Thai hotel owner at Taphae gate told us he’s been in business for forty years and 2016 was the worst ever.

6. Next property boom for Chiang Mai will come when Bangkok is sinking

Bangkok is sinking with several centimeters per year while sea levels are rising and it’s certain that major areas in and around Bangkok will experience major flooding and water drainage problems in the next few years.
Only when the problems are totally undeniable and when it’s actually too late, the authorities will have to come into action and people will realise that Bangkok isn’t so liveable anymore.

However sad for Bangkok, this could be a blessing in disguise for Chiang Mai as more and more people from Bangkok will buy up second homes in Chiang Mai. In about five years, increased demand could finally absorb the current oversupply in the property sector.

7. The next phase for Chiang Mai is in business

While this process of growing bigger and having more people will go on for some time, the next phase for Chiang Mai will start when it will house more real businesses, in other words when more and more offices from Bangkok will move here.

Right now, Chiang Mai has a very modest business sector with some industries in neigboring Lamphun and mainly tourism-oriented businesses in the city.

Diversification of that portfolio from businesses that either come from Bangkok or skip it alltogether could lay the basis for a Renaissance of Chiang Mai perhaps in ten years from now.

8. Diversification will be Chiang Mai’s strength

Rather than remaining a tourist destination only as the ‘Rose of the North’, Chiang Mai can only really develop in the end if there is sufficient diversification in its (visiting) population. Luckily, in the past few years, the influx of Chinese tourists saved the Chiang Mai tourism sector, when the number of Westerners stayed behind. Now, we see a diversification in the type of visitors and residents in Chiang Mai: not only backpackers, yoga hippies and retired people anymore, but also digital nomads and medical tourists.
Diversification will make Chiang Mai more resilient and more interesting.

9. Whatever future lays ahead for Chiang Mai, Government won’t be leading it

Another near-certainty one can rely on when predicting the future of Chiang Mai, is major changes will be come because of the visions and initiatives of local and national government, instead government will continue to lag behind all developments happening to the city.

The flooding of Chiang Mai and Bangkok several years ago was foreseeable, but government only took some actions after the damage was done. At some places along the river, now finally measures have been taken against a new flooding, but it’s not sure if they are sufficient.
In the same way, the government has no clear priorities and does not take initiatives in stimulating certain industries. It does not see the potential of Chiang Mai as a creative, innovative, green IT city. For example, the current influx of digital nomads into Chiang Mai was not brain-picked by the government, but it just developed by itself. Local authorities still do not fully realise what the influx of this kind of expertise could contribute to the city but sees them barely as more than average tourists.

The current infrastructure of Chiang Mai is insufficient for its growth, but if anything is going to happen, it’s not because of the efforts of the government, it’s because the lack of its efforts: traffic jams, wrong urban planning, more accidents are all due to inadequate government actions.

10. Uncertainties remain, but Thai-ness prevails

There are many uncertain factors when making these kind of predictions, however there are a few certainties that we can rely on that will determine the future of Chiang Mai:
There aren’t many certainties one can rely on when making a prediction, but some are: Thai people’s incredible ingenuity to make mistakes and their inability to acknowledge problems and do something about them.